Tuesday, March 31, 2009

10 Biggest Technology Developments for the Future

CIOs say these technologies will be among the biggest drivers for success in the coming years. Future Technologies for you All…..

Peering into the future is usually a fool's errand, but for IT, it's essential. CIO Insight asked 222 IT leaders about which technologies they expect to explode in the next five to 10 years, as part of our upcoming Future of IT study. Here's what they said.

1. Green IT
Eco-friendly technologies have arrived after years of buzz. IT leaders are becoming more enamored of the cost-saving potential of these technologies for the future much more so than last year.

2. Nanotechnology in PCs/Electronics
The buzz around nanotechnology has waxed and waned over the years, and even though interest may have dropped off a bit since last year, IT leaders still see big potential.

3. Business Process Modeling
CIO Insight’s recent BPI study found that improving processes is a huge booster in good times and bad, but more so in tough times. That could explain the continued interest by CIOs.

4. Collective Intelligence
The rise of collaborative and Web 2.0 technologies feeds into this growth area, giving businesses a new way for their employees to interact and share crucial data.

5. Mobile Videoconferencing
Telepresence, as it’s known in IT circles, is growing, despite some cost concerns. And with an increasingly mobile workforce, videoconferencing is ready to take its show on the road.

6. Mesh Networks
These self-healing networks can work in many different flavors (wireless, wired, etc.) and have benefited from lowered costs.

7. Sensors/Smart Tags
Radio-frequency identification, the much-debated darling of Wal-Mart and other retailers, is still flexing its muscles. IT executives show the same level of interest in RFID as in 2007, which is a good sign, given the economic climate.

8. Self-Healing/Autonomous Computing
Who said computers aren’t as smart as humans? Not IT leaders, apparently. The potential for computing resources that manage themselves can provide cost savings and free up IT pros for other duties.

9. Social Network Analysis
Social networking is on the rise, including in the enterprise, but businesses need a way to manage it all. Analyzing social net activity can help them harness value, which has been largely absent.

10. Wearable/Implanted Technology
Business workers won’t become cyborgs (well, maybe), but various tech firms have been fine-tuning more equipment designed to be toted or implanted.


http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Research/10-Biggest-Future-Technology-Developments/

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Inflation slips to 0.27 %

The rate of inflation has dropped further to 0.27 per cent for the week ended March 14 from 0.44 per cent in the previous week.

The inflation rate is seen at the zero level but there is no respite to the common people. The wholesale price index (WPI) has dropped by 17 basis points. The slide from high inflation rate to zero would be a concern for Indian economy.

The fall in the inflation may be due the fall in the international crude price and lack of proper demand for the goods and services. There is impact of the global slowdown on the economy and household economy.

Thursday, March 26, 2009

Youth slam Congress manifesto

“Youth slam Congress manifesto”, published in DNA, page number 9 on 25-03-2009.

http://epaper.dnaindia.com/dnabangalore/epapermain.aspx?queryed=9&username=&useremailid=&parenteditioncode=9&eddate=3/25/2009

They view it as old wine in a new bottle. In the backdrop of recession-hit economy and widespread retrenchments, they say the AICC manifesto has miserably failed to focus on relief measures for the younger generation
Bhargavi Kerur. Bangalore



The All India Congress Committee (AICC) manifesto, which was expected to be pro-youth, turned own to be a cruel joke for them on Tuesday.
The city youth slammed the manifesto by describing it as "old wine in new bottle."
While presenting the manifesto, the party strategists thought that the 10 crore voters aged below 40 could give them that extra edge in their race for power.
But contrary to their expectations, the Bangalore youth literally ridiculed the presentation made by the AICC president Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

"In the backdrop of recession-hit economy and widespread retrenchment, the party has completely failed to focus on relief measures for a section.
Apart from promises to bring in measures to address terrorism and introducing new tax measures, they have not said anything new. It is like old wine in new bottle," said a market analyst Naveen Hegde.

The promise to achieve a gross domestic progress (GDP) of 7% was widely ridiculed by youth who found it quite unrealistic.
"If AICC comes to power, they can achieve the promised rate of GDP growth only by making the non-tax payers cough up the tax," Prashant Kumar HV, a theatre personality, said.

"Where will they bring the money from? We are nearing a deficit of 10% of the total budget today. Are we moving towards raising that number? We have watched the performance of Congress governments over the past decades. They definitely lack the will power to implement measures to bring the GDP up," Naveen said. The public identity card, which the AICC plans to introduce after the all India census in 2011, was seen by youth as a measure of failure.

"It is again a political move and not out of a genuine concern to curb terrorism. We have a system with many loopholes. Instead of public ID card, let them introduce a social security card that would benefit the needy," Prashant said.

The measure to sell wheat at Rs3 per kilogram and rice at the same rate every month for families below the poverty line was again met with cynicism.

"They do not know what they are trying to do," Naveen said. "They are only looking towards creating a vote bank and not concerned about the uplift of the poor. The relief does not reach them. Look at what they have done in providing basic amenities and broadband connections," Prashant said. However, youth welcomed the move to encourage entrepreneurs.

"I have been hearing of measures for small entrepreneurs and its mention in the manifesto comes as a relief to the retrenched employees to start up their own ventures," said Vipul Kasera, the founder of commuteeasy.com, a car pooling venture.

k_bhargavi@dnaindia.net

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Hello, did you say ‘slowdown’?

Unlike most of the consumption stories doing rounds in India and which show huge potential in the untapped rural markets, home to two-thirds of the country’s one billion-plus population, the increasing penetration of mobile telecom services is being acted out in reality. In rural India, carrying a US$ 20 mobile phone can be something of a status symbol. This is clearly indicative of the much-larger drama unfolding in the Indian telecom market, once considered a backwater and now the fastest growing in the world. Or what would justify the fact that while the entire world and its industries are facing widespread slowdown in demand as consumers cut back on spending, the momentum that has built up in the Indian telecommunication market shows no signs of fading out.

As reported in leading business dailies, the sector added 13 m new subscribers during the month of February 2009. While this was lower as compared to the 15 m additions that were recorded in January, it was still higher than the average addition of around 10 m seen over the past few months. The count of Indian telecom subscribers now stands at 413 m, including both landline and mobile subscribers. The latter now forms over 90% of the country’s total telecom base and remains the lead growth driver.

However, amidst all these strong numbers that the sector is adding month after month, the question still remains - how sustainable is this growth. This is given that Indian mobile telecom companies have a limited pool of people to sell its services to considering that almost 25% of India’s population still remains below the poverty line and almost an equal number (consisting of children and old age people) do not use mobile services to a large extent. In that case, we remain with a pool of almost 500-600 m people who are the target market for the companies at a given point of time. And considering that the subscriber base has already reached almost 75-80% of this pool, sustainability of such growth remains a question.

Secondly, a large part of the current boom in monthly additions has been a result of cheap call rates offered by companies that have recently entered the market in a big way. Reliance Communications is a case in point. The company that has a monopoly over the CDMA mobile services market that has not grown at a very rapid pace, has recently become very aggressive in the GSM mobile segment. And, given its ultra-cheap subscription rates, it has been able to garner a significant market share of the new additions. For instance, in February, Reliance added around 3 m new mobile customers, a number that was almost 25% of the total additions. Then there are companies that continue to lower call rates to lure in new customers or to poach from other players.

Overall, given the competitive intensity, while subscribers are in for good times ahead as call rates and handset costs will continue to decline, how such a scenario impacts companies’ profitability remains to be seen. Market leaders have already termed new and aggressive entrants’, like Reliance’s (in the GSM space) pricing policies as a ‘self destruction mechanism’ considering their non-sustainability.

http://www.equitymaster.com/detail.asp?date=3/20/2009&story=2

Is China a Citibank?

The China story is remarkable by any standards. A communist country which rebuked the idea of private ownership and limited the freedom of the individual has managed to achieve an economic miracle. China is now one of the largest owners of US Dollars in the world. The USA and the US Dollar, of course, are the symbols of private ownership and freedom.

Ask any suppressed person living in any part of the world where they would like to live and what currency they would wish to own.
The response is likely to be: USA and US Dollar.

Well, China has a lot of the currency and, if the space that China occupies in the US media is an indicator of how much China owns of the USA, then China does own a fair bit of the US.

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, at an interview after the annual meeting of China's Parliament, expressed concerns that the US policy makers would ensure that the US dollar was stable. The US needed to ensure the safety of China's estimated USD 1,000,000,000,000 of investment in US dollar denominated investments.

"We have lent a huge amount of money to the United States," Wen said at a press briefing in Beijing on March 13th, "I request the U.S. to maintain its good credit, to honour its promises and to guarantee the safety of China's assets."

Strange - this coming from a country that is under fire for not honouring the human right to freedom. China is also under fire for adding pollution to the global world. Not to mention the fact that many Made-in-China products are of suspect quality and have broken the trust that people had when they go shopping for things like milk powder to toys to drywalls used in constructing homes.

So is Prime Minister Wen's finger-wagging a sign of China's strength or a show of China's weakness?

A Citibank?

Citibank was one of the world's largest banks. Like any ambitious global bank, Citibank made sure that its products were available everywhere around the world. It offered a range of products and services. It had products for the ultra high net worth, for the high net worth, for the middle class, and for the masses with lower incomes. It also had products designed for companies. And, like a good shipping and logistics company, it also owned the delivery mechanisms (like exchanges and software companies) that made everything possible.

Like their ads proudly proclaimed: the Citi never sleeps.

In the US, Citibank had tens of thousands of "producers" who sold home loans to many who could not afford to repay them. These loans were sub-prime and, in this economic downturn, cannot be serviced or repaid. Citibank now has billions of dollars of losses on its books from such loans. While the manufacturers of Citibank were happily producing products and selling them on to people who could never rely afford them, the risk control guys in the receivables section of Citibank sleeping on their job. They never asked the question: hey, will these guys ever be able to repay our loans?

So doesn't China sound like a Citibank?

China manufactured all sorts of products for all income levels and shipped them across to thankful customers - mostly in the US. The factories in China were humming away and the producers were happy. As was the government. Jobs were being created and the sales were piling up.

But, just as no one in Citibank cared whether the customers would ever be able to repay their loans, no one in China really cared whether the hordes of US Dollar bills they were accumulating were really worth anything.

Until now, that is. Prime Minister Wen is from the receivables department. He wants to makes sure that - rightfully so - China gets cash in real money, not in some worthless monopoly money.

But who is in trouble now: the guys who Citibank gave the money to or Citibank itself? Sure, the guys who took all that money and assumed it was never to be repaid are going through pain. Citibank is fighting for survival.
And Citibank is looking for a bail out. Sorry, a few bailouts.
As is China.

Hailing China

But who will bail China out? Its one trillion dollar investment in US government-backed paper is at risk. If it begins to sell its investments in the market place, it will cause massive erosion in the value of the balance US Dollars that it owns. Not only have the factories shut down and created higher unemployment but what they earned in the past will have vaporised. Not a happy situation to be in.

So China is a Citibank and needed its own bail out package from the US.
And it just got one.

On March 18th the Fed announced that they would be willing to buy USD 300 billion of US government securities from the market.

These will end up being Chinese owned paper that will find its way back to the US government.

China will get cash.And use that cash to buy gold, commodity mines, wheat, and guns.
The finger wagging of the bill collectors department has reaped its reward.
The media hype and awe of China has reaped its reward.

While in India, we are still wagging our little finger at Pakistan for the terrorist attacks of November 2008.

That is, if anyone cares to recall that we did have these attacks.
And to make matters worse there is no one left in Pakistan to wag the little finger at.Unless of course we know where bin Laden is.

Views expressed by Ajit Dayal who is a Director at Quantum Advisors Pvt Ltd and Quantum Asset Management Company Pvt Ltd.
http://www.equitymaster.com/ht/detail.asp?date=3/19/2009&story=4

Friday, March 20, 2009

Why Is IBM, Not Cisco, Buying Sun?

An IBM acquisition of Sun Microsystems would solidify IBM's market lead in servers. But it would also give IBM a lot of technology it already has on the books. Cisco Systems, with its ambitions for dominance in the data center, seems like a much better suitor for Sun.

Commenting on a pending acquisition is like touching the proverbial third rail, as with politics and religion. No one wants to be perceived as trying to influence the outcome of a deal that's still in the works—especially when it's unconfirmed—such as IBM's reported $6.5 billion bid for Sun Microsystems.

Since the news broke that IBM might be buying beleaguered Sun, there has been a steady stream of whispers that this is nothing more than any of the numerous rumors of big vendors buying other big vendors, insert corporate names here.

Adding validity to the rumor is that it comes in the wake of Cisco Systems' entry into the data center with virtualized blade servers and its unified computing architecture. Because Cisco is stepping into the backyards of its allies IBM, Hewlett-Packard and Dell, it only makes sense for one of the big three to make a major move to stave off competitive pressures. In this case, for IBM to make a play for Sun.

While many are questioning the wisdom and validity of the purported IBM acquisition, the bigger question to ask is this: "Why isn't Cisco buying Sun?"
Cisco has made its intentions clear through its unified computing announcement that it wants in on the server market. And it's no secret that Cisco's road map will likely take it into storage next, and that would mean an expensive acquisition of either EMC or NetApp. So why not just bite down now and get deep into both servers and storage, as well as few other things, by picking up Sun?

On paper, the IBM-Sun deal looks like a grab for market share. Sun is the fourth-place supplier of servers, with roughly 10 percent market share. IBM is the market leader, with 31 to 33 percent. Buying Sun would put it well out of reach of second-place supplier HP, which holds roughly a 30 percent share of the server market.

But what else would IBM get for its $6.5 billion? Storage? It already has that. Storage and systems management? Has that too. A database, since Sun owns MySQL? IBM already has DB2. Identity management and directories? Tivoli has plenty of that already. Processors? IBM already has the P5, which is akin to Sun's SPARC.

Perhaps the only thing IBM would get that's new is Java, the popular Web development platform. But is that worth the price of admission? Will that be a billion-dollar business?

Worse, an acquisition would foul several of IBM's existing OEM partnerships. IBM is partnered with NetApp for NAS (network-attached storage), which would complicate things if longtime rival Sun were introduced. And Sun is partnered with Symantec for storage management and backup applications, which would lead to conflict with Tivoli.

Some analysts are beginning to speculate about the potential for antitrust scrutiny of an IBM-Sun union. Placing more than 40 percent of the server market in IBM's hands is one thing, but analysts believe federal regulators—and some competitors—will oppose the acquisition since it will give IBM 65 percent of the Unix-based server market and leave only one significant competitor: HP.

If Cisco bought Sun, it would likely draw little, if any, regulatory scrutiny since any market-share capture by Cisco would be new and would not result in a net loss of competitive players.

Cisco could do well to pick up Sun and jump into several markets concurrently in which it presently doesn't have any existing interest. While it's developing unified computing systems for the enterprise, Sun's x86 servers would put it directly into the midrange server market. Sun's SAN (storage area network) gear would lessen its dependence on partner EMC for storage products. And Sun's identity management and directories would complement Cisco's existing security offerings.

Financially speaking, Cisco can better afford a big fish like Sun than IBM can. Cisco is sitting on the largest cash reserve in the technology market, now totaling close to $30 billion. While IBM is among the top 10 wealthiest tech companies, its cash reserves total less than $10 billion. For IBM to buy Sun would consume nearly three-quarters of its cash (in an all-cash deal), while Cisco could snap Sun up for less than one-quarter of its reserve.

A Sun acquisition by either company would have mixed implications for channel partners. Sun has the smallest channel, compared with Cisco's more than 17,000 reseller partners and IBM's 100,000 business partners. Injecting Sun's existing 3,000 partners into either of those big ponds would increase competition for sales and tech support resources. However, those same resellers would gain access to a whole breadth of products that are currently unavailable in the exclusive Sun channel.

Neither IBM nor Sun is commenting on the potential acquisition, and Cisco certainly isn't offering any insights. However, Cisco has published its criteria for acquisitions, and the key driver is access to new markets. While one insider said Cisco is staying out of this since it probably doesn't want to enter a market it doesn't lead, acquiring Sun would certainly give it access to new markets.

It may be days—if not weeks—before rumors and leaks about IBM and Sun are laid to rest. And many industry analysts and pundits will dissect and examine the anatomy of this alleged deal. Whether or not this proposed acquisition is founded in reality, the IBM-Sun news is likely signaling the beginning of major consolidation in the technology industry that will ripple through the channel and into the end-user data center.

http://www.channelinsider.com/c/a/IBM/Why-is-IBMNot-CiscoBuying-Sun-714806/?kc=CITCIEMNL03202009AI1

8 Ways IT Can Weather the Economic Storm

Peter Iannone, an executive director of IT Advisory Services at EquaTerra, shared his idea of IT services in an age of tightening budgets.


8 Ways IT Can Weather the Economic Storm
Advice for CIOs to mandate more IT services in an age of tightening budgets.


In today’s economic climate, IT budgets are headed for stormy waters, but demand for IT services continues to rise. So how do you meet your company’s mandate to do the same or more, while reducing costs at the same time?
EquaTerra, a sourcing consultancy, identifies eight key ways that help IT to weather the storm.

1. Identify what’s discretionary and what isn’t.
Challenge: If you have 200 people working on applications—including 50 on maintenance, 50 on regulatory changes and 100 on new projects—and you’re told to cut costs by 20 percent, how do you do it? When you’re under cost pressure, it comes down to determining what’s discretionary and what isn’t, keeping in mind that the discretionary, “nice-to-have” activities will suffer the biggest blow.

Solution: Work with your internal customers to determine what delivers real business value now versus possible value in the future, and then prioritize accordingly. You may be able to cut projects by 20 percent by trimming the discretionary work. If not, you’ll need to find a way to deliver the same work for a lower price. One option is outsourcing or offshoring. If you already have an outsourcing agreement, consider expanding the relationship to include more services.

2. Reevaluate outsourcing contracts.
Challenge: In an economic downturn, IT departments are usually expected to renegotiate outsourcing contracts to reduce costs or consolidate activities.

Solution: Remember that nothing is off the table. In previous economic crises, service providers have been willing to renegotiate contracts for the short term to ensure healthy relations for the long term. For example, after the dot-com bubble burst, one network equipment manufacturer worked with its IT service provider to reset the contract pricing and terms based on current conditions. And during economic downturns in general, one car manufacturer routinely tells all suppliers that everyone needs to take a haircut. In short, when your company is earning less, you need to spend less on services, and most providers respect that.

3. Rescue stranded assets.
Challenge: As layoffs and downsizing increase throughout the business, IT may end up with unused data centers, desktops and other equipment. You need to consolidate these assets and applications, but you’re not going to have the money to do it in-house.

Solution: Work with your service provider to consolidate the infrastructure, rebalancing your hardware, software and maintenance schedule to match reductions in staff.

4. Demonstrate that IT is a valuable asset, not a cost center.
Challenge: Under economic pressure, IT departments must aggressively and innovatively demonstrate that IT investments can save money and improve efficiency throughout the organization.

Solution: Work with your business partners to identify ways that IT can help address other departments’ budget cuts. Consider, for instance, leveraging self-service technology to help employees and customers get information, all while reducing strain on call centers. This won’t help the IT budget, but it may reduce other departments’ costs while improving customer satisfaction at the same time.

5. Go for the green.
Challenge: The pressure to cut spending hasn’t alleviated pressure on IT to conserve power, design more-efficient procedures and otherwise minimize its environmental impact.

Solution: Consider green initiatives that demonstrate short-term operational savings. For example, efforts such as teleconferencing, Web conferencing and work-at-home technology are all ways to reduce travel expenses and conserve transportation energy while also showing how IT can add value to the company.

6. Minimize upfront costs in outsourcing.
Challenge: When businesses are under strong pressure to reduce costs, outsourcing can be part of the solution, but it’s critical to ensure immediate savings. The challenge is not just getting more for your money, but getting more for less money.

Solution: Structure your outsourcing deal operationally and financially to get the savings up front. On the operational side, strive to reduce fixed overhead such as people, applications and physical infrastructure. On the financial side, instead of paying $10 million up front to save $5 million a year, negotiate with the provider to spread the costs over time.

7. Outsource for cost avoidance.
Challenge: The pressure on IT isn’t just about reducing current costs; it’s about avoiding future ones. So consider what expenses you’ll face down the road, and address them in your current outsourcing relationships.

Solution: If you want to implement an ERP system for 50,000 employees around the world, you’re going to pay roughly $1,000 per employee for licensing, testing and implementation. Instead, you could “rent” such a system from your service provider, avoiding $50 million in projected expenses. Likewise, if you outsource your data center to a Tier-1 service provider, you’ll get inherent benefits such as increased security, reliability and scalability, which can help you avoid future costs for upgrades or disaster recovery systems.

8. Plan for the bounce-back.
Challenge: Economic pressure requires you to cut costs today, but remember to plan for tomorrow. If you reduce your labor and knowledge base too much, you could be in trouble when the economy bounces back. For example, you might downsize as you put projects on the back burner, but when the time comes to rekindle them, you won’t have the resources available in house.

Solution: When you’re outsourcing, make sure you can get the skills you need when the economy improves. Choose a service provider that can meet your needs in both the short and long term. And when you’re writing the contract, build flexibility into the agreement, ensuring that providers can turn the dial to increase resources when the time comes.

This essay originally appeared on the CIO insight.
http://www.cioinsight.com/c/a/Leadership/10-Ways-to-Get-Closer-to-the-CEO/

IBM bid for Sun could be a blocking move

Here is the valid outlook of Mr Tom Foremski, who reports on the business and culture of Silicon Valley and beyond, about the IBM bid for Sun.

I agree with Dana Gardner that IBM’s reported $6.5 billion bid for Sun makes no sense at all.

Owning Java is not a business model, or not enough of one to help Sun meaningfully.

So, does IBM need chip architectures from Sun? Nope, has their own. Access to markets from Sun’s long-underperforming sales force? Nope. Unix? IBM has one. Linux? IBM was there first. Engineering skills? Nope. Storage technology? Nope. Head-start on cloud implementations? Nope. Java license access or synergy? Nope, too late. Sun’s deep and wide professional services presence worldwide? Nope.

But it does make sense if you were to consider the move as a strategic one that would block Cisco Systems or Hewlett-Packard from acquiring the company.

Cisco would get:

There are considerable synergies between Sun and Cisco:

- Sun has a large server business, Cisco is moving into servers.

- Sun has large customers in telecommunications and finance, two very large server markets.

- Sun has considerable R&D and IP in data center technologies, Cisco needs those capabilities if it is to rapidly succeed in its data center push.

- Sun has considerable expertise in building and running data centers.

- Sun has a services business that would aid Cisco in winning new business.

- Sun has very little overlap in products, technologies, or services with Cisco.

- Sun has extensive middleware.

- Companies buy systems and solutions - Sun would help Cisco move beyond just providing boxes such as its recently introduced Cisco Unified Computing System.

And there are some fairly decent Hewlett-Packard synergies in middleware, data centers, and servers.

An IBM acquisition would only serve to block an acquisition from IBM’s competitors. And the relatively high valuation of Sun, in the IBM bid, about double it’s prior market value, could be part of that strategy, to make it very expensive for an acquirer such as Cisco or HP, and thus more difficult to get shareholder approval.

If the IBM bid is a real one, it shows that Big Blue is very concerned that Sun could be a very valuable aquisition for one of its rivals.

http://blogs.zdnet.com/Foremski/?p=412

The Year of the Ox: China “spinning top” is losing momentum.

You may know that 2009 is the Chinese Year of the Ox. But I bet you didn’t know this: Each Chinese New Year is marked on the second new moon following the winter solstice. Trivia? Yes. Trivial? No. There is so much that we in the U.S. don’t know about China, yet we coexist with this country in a most unlikely symbiotic relationship.

There are many who say that the U.S. desperately needs China to finance our current wave of debt through their purchases of our bonds. Who else if not China? On the flip side, if not the U.S., then who will trade with China at the volume sufficient to support their ravenous need for growth?

Unlike Europe, China remains a mystery to us. I am not an expert in European politics, but if I find myself lacking, I can access reliable expert resources. When it comes to China, where do I turn to for insightful, reliable and predictive analysis on their politics and economics? In fact, where is the line between China’s politics and a Communist party controlled and Politburo-directed economy?

“Visibility” is a word conventional economists use when forecasting future trends based on current indicators. In the Western economies, we can rely on the visibility provided by the government and private sector data. But even “opaque,” I believe, is a generous word to use when it comes to data coming from the official Chinese ministries.

China is a country of more than 1.3 billion people led by a small cadre of members of the ruling Communist Party estimated in the thousands. Certain progressive reforms helped create an explosion in manufacturing exports, but a critical factor in sustaining those exports has been an artificially low exchange rate between the yuan and the U.S. dollar. The result has been a trade imbalance, by which China is now sitting on more than $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. They are holding $750 billion in U.S. Treasuries, $500 billion in agencies, and estimates place their sovereign wealth fund holdings in corporate bonds, equities and money market funds at another $300 billion.

While the U.S. went on an easy-money buying, spending and borrowing spree, the Chinese dove in head first. Now the party is over, deflation is here and the Chinese are unhappy at the losses evident in their U.S. portfolio. Premier Wen says, “We have lent a huge amount of money to the U.S. Of course we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I am definitely a little worried.” What is he really saying? The last thing he wants is a rising yuan, because that would devastate exports.

I see China as a spinning top: As long as it maintains momentum, it can continue to stand on its needle spindle. Should that momentum slow too much – and the top falls over. Already China is experiencing massive job losses and public unrest as tens of millions of rural migrants are now out of work and socially displaced – and that’s at an estimated 7% GDP growth rate! While some would argue that China needs to reduce this massive reserve balance, their only real option, currently, is to keep buying U.S. Treasuries to support the U.S. dollar and finance our economic recovery – in order to sustain theirs.

China has hitched its future to the dollar, and its interests as both major exporter and creditor to the U.S. are at odds. It wants to keep an annual economic growth rate in the double digits in order to maintain reforms. However, historically, such growth is unsustainable, and progressive reforms – short of more economic and political freedoms – can only carry the economy so far.

The U.S. continues to spend as if debt didn’t mean anything, and China’s spinning top is losing momentum. Something has to give. If they decide to unpeg the yuan from the dollar, stop buying Treasuries – or, at worst, sell their dollar holdings – that would likely mean skyrocketing interest rates and a dollar freefall. None of these would result in pleasant memories for the Year of the Ox.

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/03/17/The-Year-of-the-Ox.aspx

This essay originally appeared on the March 16 U.S. Treasuries Daily Forecast page of Bill Fox’s intensive Interest Rates Specialty Service. (See full menu here.)
Bill Fox has been involved in the markets since graduating in 1988 from Vanderbilt University. He joined EWI in 1994; most of his subscribers are professional traders spread around the globe.

Is Bernanke Saying “Deflation Is Here”?

So the Federal Reserve has embarked on the great experiment of our time, quantitative easing; also known as monetization of the debt; also known as creating money out of thin air – to buy U.S. Treasuries in a desperate effort to stop deflation.

The television pundits were all acting surprised at the size and boldness of Ben Bernanke’s actions, as if they didn’t know that the Fed has already bought $100 billion in agencies. That agency commitment has now exploded to $750 billion. The Fed’s balance sheet will balloon to $3 trillion, while the universe of allowable assets will expand under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) program. The Fed will print money, use it to buy Treasuries, then loan them for assets of dubious quality.

Wednesday’s announcement is the equivalent of Fed Chairman Bernanke standing on a soapbox, waiving the white flag of surrender and shouting, “deflation is here.”

As I warned my subscribers on Wednesday, this news led to the sort of emotional reaction in the market’ that is usually quickly retraced. Sure enough, the 30-year June Bond contract closed on Wednesday nowhere near the intraday high. Part of the problem is that the $300 billion allocated to “long-dated Treasuries” will have no direct effect on the 30 year Bond, as the target issues are between 2 and 10 year Treasury Notes. The Federal Reserve desperately wants a steep yield curve, so I believe the majority of the Fed’s buying will be weighted toward the 2 to 5-year Notes, to suppress the short end of the curve.

This is not to say that more announcements and purchases can’t or won’t be made. If bailout mania and all the Fed machinations have taught us anything, it’s that deficits are meaningless within this desperate bid to reflate, or recapture, inflation. If Bernanke is dissatisfied with the outcome of this round, the Fed may expand its balance sheet even more. Should that require $2 trillion of purchases of 30-year Bonds in the future, then so be it.

Keep in mind that the Treasury is issuing debt at the clip of $100 billion a month, so this program will be all but spent in less than a quarter. After Wednesday’s announcement, I actually heard one guy say, “This is great, now we have a buyer where there weren’t any before.” Uh…right. Did you see how hard the U.S. dollar fell after the news? I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point the dollar's travel is inversely proportional to the size of the U.S. deficit.

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2009/03/19/Is-Bernanke-Saying-%93Deflation-Is-Here%94.aspx

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Cheat Sheet: Cloud computing A tech storm is brewing...


Don't talk about clouds, that usually means rain's on its way…

Yeah, sorry about that but don't worry because cloud computing actually refers to services and applications that are hosted on and accessed through the internet - or 'the cloud' as it's now known.

Makes sense but why should I be interested?
Well if vendors and analysts are to be believed, everything will be done in the cloud in a few years' time. Lots of tech companies, big and small, are dabbling in cloud computing with the likes of Google, Microsoft and SAP all getting (or trying to get) a piece of the action. HP, Intel and Yahoo! also announced recently that they're teaming up to work on cloud computing.

But is it actually something businesses will find useful?
There's definitely a market out there for this kind of stuff, with Google Apps doing a roaring trade and software as a service (SaaS) companies like salesforce.com and Netsuite - who have based their entire business models on supplying software via the web - enjoying huge growth in just a few years.

Give me an example of this cloud malarkey then…
You're probably familiar with online email services such as MSN Hotmail and Google Mail. These are a form of cloud computing as they're essentially a way of storing and accessing data through a web browser.

The email data is held on servers by the service provider but users can securely access them through a standard web browser. In fact some big name businesses have moved their staff onto this kind of email service due to the flexibility and value it offers compared with traditional computing.

Other applications include online portals such as iGoogle, which allows you to have a selection of online services available on a single web page. It means you can have your email, map service, RSS feeds and even cartoon strips all appearing on a single home page.

There's also been talk of this idea being adopted in the business world to allow workers to access all the applications and information they need through their browser.

It can't just be about email though can it?
You're right - there are loads of other applications lurking in the cloud, many of which are classed as SaaS or on-demand software. This essentially allows businesses to use tailored versions of software that are actually hosted by a third-party vendor. SaaS applications range from customer relationship management to purchasing, finance, HR and document collaboration.

Big SaaS players offering these kinds of software include Google with its Google Apps and SaaS specialists salesforce.com and Netsuite.

Businesses can also use the cloud to boost their storage capability. For example, online retailer Amazon charges businesses to use spare capacity in its enormous infrastructure to give them extra storage options.

The other big traditional tech vendors are all working on cloud services, with Microsoft starting to really embrace the internet following its initial slow start and SAP is working on an ambitious software package called Business by Design, which it's touting as being the most comprehensive SaaS enterprise resource planning product on offer - when it finally appears.

OK, I get what the cloud is now but what's so great about it?
Cloud computing means data and applications don't need to be held on servers within businesses or on home PCs where they will actually be used. This does away with the need for software to be installed and fewer servers are needed, all of which significantly cuts down on tech maintenance and implementation costs.

If you look at Google Apps, for example, the licence cost per user for its Premier Edition is just £25 per user. Google simply supplies the accounts and maintains the systems while business users merrily go about their day-to-day business.

So it's cheap but is that it?
Nope. Cloud computing also means IT teams can focus on other tasks as a third party deals with any misfiring software or server maintenance. Instead, in-house IT teams can focus on projects that could improve their business and not have to worry about more mundane tasks.

Another benefit is that people can access their business services and applications through almost any device with an internet browser. This obviously means they can work more flexibly without having to rely on a connection back to their office network.

Some cloud computing vendors are also tailoring their applications to work on mobile devices. The launch of the 3G iPhone, for example, was accompanied by countless vendors touting their SaaS products for Apple's shiny new device.

What about security?
Good job you asked. Customers, on the whole, seem to trust the cloud services they are adopting in ever increasing numbers. Google Apps has been praised for its security as it incorporates tried and tested technology from security firm Postini, which it acquired in 2007.

Some people are even talking about security services that are hosted in the cloud, with malware and spam detection applications already available. In fact analysts at Gartner are predicting that spending on online security applications will treble by 2013.

There is still an issue around business continuity and uptime - namely if your cloud provider's service goes offline, for whatever reason, it can leave you unable to access vital applications, emails or information, which could have an impact on your business.

Cloud advocates point out that traditional corporate networks are just as, if not more, vulnerable to downtime, while some vendors are also working on cloud applications that can also be used in offline situations.

Sounds like clouds aren't always such as bad thing.
Well you know what they say: every cloud has a silver lining...


http://software.silicon.com/applications/0,39024653,39266506,00.htm

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Cold economy warms lipstick sales

The beleaguered economy has educated consumers on the art of frugality. And while many shoppers have axed discretionary items from their budgets, lipstick remains one of the affordable luxuries women won't live without.

In fact, when times get tough, analysts and cosmetics companies often bat around a loose economic theory dubbed the "lipstick index." While you won't find it in the pages of microeconomics textbooks, the lipstick index refers to consumption that helps consumers feel better about themselves when they face a dismal financial outlook.

Information Resources Inc. analyst Kim Feil, division president of worldwide innovation, also has taken note of the correlation between a tough economy and stellar lipstick sales.

In fact, IRI data for the 12-week period ended Jan. 26 reveals that lipstick sales ramped up 5.4 percent to $104.5 million, with Cover Girl Outlast the clear winner in the category. Cover Girl Outlast sales increased nearly 35 percent for the period. Revlon ColorStay and Maybelline Wet Shine also achieved impressive double-digit increases. New launches from Revlon and Maybelline likely will give sales even more momentum this spring. Revlon Moisturous Lipcolor with SPF 17, an almost weightless gel formula that smoothes and conditions lips, will be available this month in 24 shades for a suggested retail p rice of $7.50.

Maybelline anticipates its first long-wearing intro, Maybelline Forever Lip-color, will have staying power at retail, as well. The one-step lipstick offers the comfort of a conventional lipstick with the benefit of long-wearing color, said Karen Bush, senior vice president of marketing for Maybelline. Maybelline Forever launched last month and retails for $7.95.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3374/is_5_25/ai_99984765

Global Recession and the Indian Economy – Myth and Reality

Interesting article on EPW.

Global Recession and the Indian Economy – Myth and Reality

http://epw.in/uploads/articles/13218.pdf


Cheers,

Global Economic Crisis


Listening to the President's speech, I kept asking myself what happened to the global economy. What happened to the globalization that has been such an important part of our economic growth in the past 20 years? What happened to American leadership? The President was inwardly focused at a time when that orientation most likely will not solve our economic problems.

The global economic crisis has wiped out 325,000 financial sector jobs worldwide. Greater confidence in the U.S banking system isn't going solve the bigger problem of global confidence. An investment in energy-saving infrastructure isn't going to help Caterpillar, a company whose sales come from mostly outside the United States. It's a global economic crisis.

'The nation that invented the automobile cannot walk away from it' was one of Obama's most powerful lines. The President went on to say that he is committed to a retooled, re-imagined auto industry that can compete and win. While this is excellent rhetoric, it fails to describe what the vision is for the U.S. place in a global economy.